A fuzzy goal programming model for strategic information technology investment assessment

Purpose – The high expenditures in information technology (IT) and the growing usage that penetrates the core of business have resulted in a need to effectively and efficiently evaluate strategic IT investments in organizations. The purpose of this paper is to propose a novel two-dimensional approach that determines the deferrable strategy with the most value by maximizing the real option values while minimizing the risks associated with each alternative strategy. Design/methodology/approach – In the proposed approach, first, the deferrable investment strategies are prioritized according to their values using real option analysis (ROA). Then, the risks associated with each investment strategy are quantified using the group fuzzy analytic hierarchy process. Finally, the values associated with the two dimensions are integrated to determine the deferrable IT investment strategy with the most value using a fuzzy preemptive goal programming model. Findings – Managers face the difficulty that most IT investment projects are inherently risky, especially in a rapidly changing business environment. The paper proposes a framework that can be used to evaluate IT investments based on the real option concept. This simple, intuitive, generic and comprehensive approach incorporates the linkage among economic value, real option value and IT investments that could lead to a better-structured decision process. Originality/value – In contrast to the traditional ROA literature, the approach contributes to the literature by incorporating a risk dimension parameter. The paper emphasizes the importance of categorizing risk management in IT investment projects since some risk cannot be eliminated.